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Dem senator says ‘no doubt’ Biden declined cognitively during presidency

Politics 2 Mins Read

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told Politico that there is no question that President Joe Biden declined cognitively during his White House tenure.

‘There’s no doubt about it,’ Murphy said when the outlet asked whether Biden had undergone cognitive decline while serving as president. ‘The debate is whether it was enough that it compromised his ability to act as chief executive,’ the senator said, according to Politico.

Fox News Digital reached out to Murphy’s office to request additional comment from the senator but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

During an appearance on ‘The View’ last week, Biden pushed back against the idea that he suffered significant cognitive decline during the last year of his presidency.

Fox News Digital reached out to the Office of Joe and Jill Biden but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

During an interview on CNN last year before Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential contest, Murphy said that Biden’s debate performance had ‘raised questions for voters’ regarding whether he was ‘still the old Joe Biden.’

Murphy suggested during that interview that Biden should ‘show the country that he is still the old Joe Biden,’ saying that he took Biden ‘at his word’ that he was still able to do his job. 

‘I have seen him do this job at an absolutely exceptional level. No president has had this level of legislative accomplishment in their first four years as Joe Biden,’ Murphy said.

Politico also reported that Murphy said it would have helped the Democratic Party if Biden had not run in 2024.

‘I mean, isn’t that self-evident? We lost,’ he said, according to the outlet. ‘Obviously, in retrospect, we should have done something different. The likelihood is the odds were pretty stacked against us no matter what, but clearly people were looking for change and neither Biden nor Harris were going to be able to offer a real message of change.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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The real breakthrough in U.S.–China trade talks is much bigger than just tariffs

Politics 5 Mins Read
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The United States and China recently announced a significant easing of tariffs, with both countries agreeing to reduce duties for a 90-day window. The financial press lauded the move. Stocks rallied. Headlines proclaimed relief in a trade war that has dragged on and weighed heavily on global markets. But while most fixated on the immediate impact of slashed tariffs, the more meaningful development went largely unnoticed.

Quietly, Washington and Beijing agreed to establish a formal ‘trade consultation mechanism,’ a permanent bilateral platform to hold structured talks on currency policies, market access, and non-tariff barriers. While bureaucratic in tone, this institutional move may prove to be the most consequential economic shift in years.

That’s because this isn’t just about trade logistics—it’s about the foundation of the global economic system. The U.S.–China imbalance isn’t simply a matter of bad trade deals or American overconsumption. It’s a structural problem embedded in the international monetary framework, and for the first time in a generation, both countries appear ready to talk about it seriously.

This deeper imbalance is something Stephen Miran—who now serves as chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers—laid out in extraordinary detail in a 41-page report published in November 2024. Titled ‘A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System,’ the paper explains how the current dollar-centric model locks the United States into persistent trade deficits while encouraging surplus economies like China to underconsume and overproduce. These excess savings are then recycled into U.S. financial assets, particularly Treasuries, which props up the dollar and erodes American manufacturing.

The result? A lopsided economic order where the U.S. acts as consumer of last resort and global debtor-in-chief, while countries like China flood the world with goods but face chronic domestic stagnation.

Miran calls this a ‘Triffin World,’ referencing economist Robert Triffin’s famous dilemma: When a national currency is also a global reserve, it eventually becomes impossible to balance domestic and international obligations. To satisfy global demand for safe assets, the U.S. must run deficits, which hollow out its own economy. Meanwhile, surplus nations avoid necessary reforms at home because the system rewards their export-heavy models.

China’s property crisis and slowing growth show the limits of its export model. The U.S., meanwhile, faces mounting deficits, political polarization, and industrial decline. Neither side can afford to ignore the systemic flaws any longer.

In theory, tariffs are a way to push back against this imbalance. But they’re crude and often counterproductive. What Miran proposes is a structural recalibration—realigning currency values to reflect underlying economic conditions, discouraging excessive reserve accumulation, and encouraging more balanced capital flows.

The fact that this new U.S.–China mechanism explicitly includes discussions on currency and non-tariff measures suggests that Miran’s framework is already influencing policy. This is more than a détente—it’s the first real move to unwind Bretton Woods II.

It’s also important to understand what happens when imbalances like these are allowed to persist. History shows that unresolved economic distortions tend to escalate into geopolitical conflict. In the interwar period, the failure to manage reparations and trade balances led to a deflationary spiral in Europe. Germany’s economy collapsed under the weight of austerity and fixed exchange rates, leading to widespread unemployment, social unrest, and ultimately, war.

We’re not there yet—but the warning signs are clear. China’s property crisis and slowing growth show the limits of its export model. The U.S., meanwhile, faces mounting deficits, political polarization, and industrial decline. Neither side can afford to ignore the systemic flaws any longer.

That’s why the new committee matters. For the first time, Washington and Beijing are signaling a willingness to move beyond tactical measures and engage in structural dialogue. It may not grab headlines, but for those paying attention, it’s a major pivot.

Critics will say that this is just another diplomatic forum. But there’s reason to believe it’s more. Miran’s appointment to the top economic advisory post in the White House indicates that these ideas have currency at the highest levels. And the alignment between his policy prescriptions and the scope of the new committee is hard to ignore.

To be clear, none of this will be easy. The system didn’t get here overnight, and it won’t be unwound quickly. But the creation of this platform is a start. It acknowledges the real root of global trade tensions, not as a battle between exporters and importers, but as a distortion of incentives baked into the architecture of international finance.

The United States must seize this opportunity. Rather than settling for symbolic tariff victories or short-term market gains, we should push for a durable framework that restores balance, rewards production at home, and disincentivizes dependency abroad.

In that sense, this may be one of the clearest examples of President Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ approach—firm on leverage, clear-eyed on outcomes, and willing to tackle problems at the root rather than the surface.

So, while the tariff cut got the headlines, the real story lies in this committee—a forum that could, if used wisely, become the place where the next phase of global economic order is quietly drafted.

In the end, America cannot remain strong abroad if it’s structurally weakened at home. This agreement gives us a chance to begin rewriting that script.

And that’s a deal worth making.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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GOP reps, advocacy group to target competitive House districts in Trump tax-cut push

Politics 3 Mins Read

Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is hosting a day of action on Saturday in competitive congressional districts as House Republicans iron out the details of President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill.’

AFP is teaming up with GOP Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Ashley Hinson of Iowa, Tom Barrett of Michigan and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania for door-knocking, phone banks and grassroots organizing in a show of support for extending Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). 

Canvassers will encourage constituents in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania to urge their senators and representatives to extend Trump’s tax cuts as a key component of his ‘big, beautiful bill.’

‘Working families and small businesses throughout the country are counting on Congress to act as soon as possible to renew President Trump’s tax cuts,’ AFP Managing Director Kent Strang said in a statement to Fox News Digital ahead of the day of action. 

‘With support from AFP’s activists bringing their unmatched energy and drive this weekend, we can ensure we extend pro-growth tax policy and help Republicans prevent the largest tax hike in history from crushing the middle class.’

AFP is launching their day of action in conjunction with their $20 million ‘Protect Prosperity’ campaign, which the conservative advocacy group has called the single largest investment of any outside group dedicated to preserving the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

As House Republicans searched for alternative ways to offset an extension of the 2017 tax cuts and Trump’s ambitious goals to cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security, AFP urged Republicans to offset budget cuts by eliminating former President Joe Biden’s ‘Green New Deal giveaways.’ 

The House Energy and Commerce Committee debated green energy cuts during their lengthy markup on Capitol Hill this week as part of the House budget reconciliation process. 

Meanwhile, House Republicans debated potentially raising taxes as Trump indicated his support for a small tax hike to fund his ‘big, beautiful bill.’ While rumors swirled among House Republicans for weeks that the White House was floating a tax hike on millionaires, Trump confirmed on Friday he would be ‘OK if they do.’

However, House Republicans seemed to drop their plans for a new millionaire’s tax hike as the reconciliation began. The House Ways and Means Committee released nearly 400 pages of legislation on Monday that did not include a tax hike. 

It’s no coincidence that AFP is focusing its attention on competitive districts in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as contentious races are expected in 2026. 

In Arizona’s sixth congressional district, Ciscomani won his House seat in 2022 with just over 50% of the vote. Schweikert narrowly won Arizona’s first congressional district by less than 2% of the vote in 2022 and 2024, as one of the most expensive House races in the country last year. 

And while Hinson won by a much larger margin in Iowa’s second congressional district, Democrat Kevin Techau has already announced his campaign to unseat Hinson. 

Both Barrett in Michigan and Mackenzie in Pennsylvania managed to pick up Republican House seats in 2024, flipping their congressional districts from blue to red. Democrats will likely seek to win those seats back in 2026. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Biden’s pandemic playbook failed. Trump just offered a smarter path forward

Politics 5 Mins Read
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On May 5, President Donald Trump signed an executive order outlawing future federal funds going to gain-of-function research. This move comes as the nation begins to reckon with the broader failures of its pandemic response – failures that extended far beyond the lab and into every aspect of public health policy.

As the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic fades into the rearview mirror, the United States finds itself engaged in postmortems: on lockdowns, vaccines, school closures and public trust. But there’s one glaring lesson the U.S. has yet to fully absorb – its health strategy during crises can’t rely on just one type of tool. A narrow, binary response to COVID-19 cost lives. The country must do better next time.

During the pandemic, the public was often presented with a simple directive: get vaccinated or take your chances. While most Americans indeed should have gotten vaccinated, policymakers should have provided more room for nuance and variation. They ignored a core truth of medicine – no single solution fits every individual. The virus evolved. Patient responses varied. But the official toolkit did not adapt.

What the U.S. needed (and still needs) is a robust, flexible public health approach that supports a range of modalities: vaccines, yes, but also antivirals, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and emerging biologics. 

A resilient system is one that can pivot quickly, match patients with the right intervention and adapt as science advances.

Monoclonal antibodies offer a clear example of what went wrong. These therapies, proven to reduce hospitalizations and deaths among high-risk patients, were widely distributed early in the pandemic and used successfully by top federal officials, including the president. But in late 2021 and early 2022, federal authorities stopped distributing them, citing reduced efficacy against new variants.

This was a mistake. mAbs are a platform technology. They can be tailored to variants and deployed quickly. They are especially important for those who don’t respond well to vaccines. But nearly five years after the start of the pandemic, no mAb has received full FDA approval for respiratory virus prevention despite meeting the same safety and efficacy benchmarks used to fast-track other medical countermeasures. 

Meanwhile, the public was encouraged to rely on booster shots which, while still additive, lost efficacy as the pandemic continued. CDC data show that the bivalent booster provided only 37% protection against hospitalization for adults over 65 after several months. For the immunocompromised, protection was even lower. Yet, therapies that could have closed that gap were taken off the table.

The U.S. should have maintained an all-of-the-above approach to treatment so its health professionals could make patient recommendations on a case-by-case basis, ensuring the most vulnerable Americans receive adequate protection. 

More broadly, five years later, the U.S. still lacks a proactive framework for deploying flexible, evidence-driven therapeutics in a public health emergency. The U.S. needs a system that doesn’t just rely on whatever is first to market; it needs one that actively supports a diversified portfolio of tools.

That means empowering agencies like the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institutes of Health to invest in adaptable countermeasures – antibody platforms, broad-spectrum antivirals, rapid diagnostics and therapeutic RNA technologies. It also means modernizing the FDA’s approval pathways to reflect the pace of innovation. When real-world evidence shows that a therapy is saving lives, regulators should have the flexibility to act.

Congress can help by authorizing funding streams that reward versatility, creating incentives for companies to maintain and adapt an all-of-the-above treatment approach, and ensuring public-private partnerships are built for speed and scale. Legislation could also establish a standing procurement mechanism for variant-specific updates, not just vaccines.

All of this will help to mitigate the damage of one of the greatest casualties of the pandemic – the decline of public trust in America’s health institutions. This erosion stemmed from the sense that key decisions lacked transparency or failed to account for patients’ diverse needs.

According to a 2022 Pew Research Center survey, only 29% of U.S. adults said they had a great deal of confidence in medical scientists, down from 40% at the beginning of the pandemic. Trust in public health officials followed a similar decline.

A more transparent, inclusive approach, where policymakers communicate the rationale behind treatment shifts and openly assess real-world outcomes, can help rebuild that trust. A better system would emphasize data-sharing, clear communication, and respect for physician judgment in tailoring care to patient needs.

COVID-19 exposed the limits of the U.S.’ current playbook. A more effective future demands flexibility, pluralism and the humility to admit health policymakers don’t always know right away what will work best, or for whom. 

But if regulators build the right system – one that encourages innovation, evaluates outcomes in real time, and keeps every safe and effective tool on the table – they won’t have to learn this lesson again the hard way.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Business

American Eagle shares plunge 17% after it withdraws guidance, writes off $75 million in inventory

Business 3 Mins Read

American Eagle on Tuesday said it is writing off $75 million in spring and summer merchandise and withdrawing its full-year guidance as it contends with slow sales, steep discounting and an uncertain economy.

The apparel retailer said it expects revenue in the first quarter, which ended in early May, to be around $1.1 billion, a decline of about 5% compared to the prior-year period. American Eagle anticipates comparable sales will drop 3%, led by an expected 4% decline at intimates brand Aerie. American Eagle previously expected first-quarter sales to be down by a mid-single-digit percentage and anticipated full-year sales would drop by a low single-digit percentage. 

Shares plunged more than 17% in extended trading. 

When it reported fiscal fourth-quarter results in March, American Eagle warned that the first quarter was off to a “slower than expected” start, due to weak demand and cold weather. Conditions evidently worsened as the quarter progressed, and the retailer turned to steep discounts to move inventory.

As a result, American Eagle is expecting to see an operating loss of around $85 million and an adjusted operating loss, which cuts out one-time charges related to its restructuring, of about $68 million for the quarter. That loss reflects “higher than planned” discounting and a $75 million inventory charge related to a write-down of spring and summer merchandise, the company said. 

“We are clearly disappointed with our execution in the first quarter. Merchandising strategies did not drive the results we anticipated, leading to higher promotions and excess inventory. As a result, we have taken an inventory write down on spring and summer goods,” said CEO Jay Schottenstein.

“We have entered the second quarter in a better position, with inventory more aligned to sales trends,” he said. “Additionally, we are actively evaluating our forward plans. Our teams continue to work with urgency to strengthen product performance, while improving our buying principles.” 

The company added it is withdrawing its fiscal 2025 guidance “due to macro uncertainty and as management reviews forward plans in the context of first quarter results.” It is unclear if recent tariff policy changes had an effect on American Eagle.

Some companies bought inventory earlier than usual to plan for higher duties, but American Eagle repeatedly said in March that it was in a solid inventory position and was able to go after trends as customer preferences shifted. 

At the start of the first quarter, the company said it had some inventory outages and needed to supplement stock in a few key categories, particularly at Aerie, one of its primary growth drivers. 

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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5 new Uber features you should know — including a way to avoid surge pricing

Business 4 Mins Read

Uber is giving commuters new ways to travel and cut costs on frequent rides.

The ride-hailing company on Wednesday announced a route share feature on its platform, prepaid ride passes and special deals week for Uber One members at its annual Go-Get showcase.

Uber’s new features come as the company accelerates its leadership position in the ride-sharing market and seeks to offer more affordable alternatives for users. It also follows last week’s first-quarter earnings as Uber swung to a profit but fell short of revenue estimates.

“The goal for us as we build our products is to put people at the center of everything, and right now for us, it means making things a little easier, a little more predictable, and above all, just a little more — or a lot more — affordable,” said Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi at the event.

Here are some of the big announcements from the annual product event.

Users looking to save money on regular routes and willing to walk a short distance can select a shared ride with up to two other passengers through the new route-share feature.

The prepopulated routes run every 20 minutes along busy areas between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. on weekdays. The initial program is slated to kick off in seven cities, including New York, San Francisco, Boston and Chicago.

Uber said its new route-share fares will cost up to 50% less than an UberX option, and that it is working to partner with employers on qualifying the feature for commuter benefits. Users can book a seat from 7 days to 10 minutes before a pickup departure.

Riders on Uber can now prepurchase two different types of ride passes to hold fares on frequented routes during a one-hour period every day. For $2.99 a month, riders can buy a price lock pass that holds a price between two locations for one hour every day. The pass expires after 30 days or a savings total of $50.

The feature gives riders a way to avoid surge pricing.

Ride Passes roll out in 10 cities on Wednesday, including Dallas, Orlando and San Francisco, and can be purchased for up to 10 routes a month. Uber will charge users a lower price if the fare is cheaper than the pass at departure time.

The company also debuted a prepaid pass option, allowing users to pay in advance and stock up on regular monthly trips. Uber’s pass option comes in bundles of 5, 10, 15 and 20-ride increments, with corresponding discounts between 5% and 20%.

Both pass options will be available on teen accounts in the fall, Uber said. The route share and ride passes will be available in a new commuter hub feature on the app coming later this year.

Uber is also expanding its autonomous vehicle partnership with Volkswagen.

The company will start testing shared AV rides later this year and is aiming for a launch in Los Angeles in 2026.

Uber rolled out autonomous rides in Austin, Texas, in March through its agreement with Alphabet-owned Waymo and is preparing for an Atlanta launch this summer. The company announced the partnership in May 2023. Autonomous Waymo rides are also currently offered through the Uber app in Phoenix, but the company does not directly manage that fleet.

Khosrowshahi called AVs “the single greatest opportunity ahead for Uber” during the company’s earnings call last week and said the Austin debut “exceeded” expectations. The company previously had an AV unit that it sold in 2020 as it faced high costs and a series of safety challenges, including a fatal accident.

Along with Volkswagen and Waymo, Uber has joined forces with Avride, May Mobility and self-driving trucking company Aurora for autonomous ride-sharing and freight services in the U.S. The company has partnerships with WeRide, Pony.AI and Momenta internationally.

Uber is taking a page out of Amazon’s book by offering its own variation of the e-commerce giant’s beloved Prime Day, with special offers between May 16 and 23 for Uber One members.

Some of those deals include 50% off shared rides and 20% off Uber Black. The platform is also adding a new benefit of 10% back in Uber credits for users that use Uber Rent or book Lime rides.

UberEats also announced a partnership with OpenTable to allow users to book reservations and rides.

The new feature, powered by OpenTable, launches in six countries including the U.S. and Australia.

Through the partnership, users can book restaurant reservations and get a discount on rides. OpenTable members will also be able to transfer points to Uber and UberEats. The company is also offering OpenTable VIPs a six-month free trial of Uber One.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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YouTube will stream NFL Week 1 game in Brazil for free

Business 2 Mins Read

YouTube will stream the National Football League’s Week 1 game on Sept. 5 for free, the first time the dominant streaming platform has ever broadcast a live NFL game in its entirety.

The game, which Front Office Sports first reported will be between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers, will take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

“Last year, people spent over 350 million hours watching official NFL content on YouTube, so it’s both fitting and thrilling to continue to build our relationship with our partners at the NFL,” YouTube Chief Business Officer Mary Ellen Coe said in a statement. “Streaming the Friday night game to fans for free around the world will mark YouTube’s first time as a live NFL broadcaster — and we’ll do it in a way that only YouTube can, with an interactive viewing experience and creators right at the center of the experience.”

The game will be available to all YouTube and YouTube TV users globally, except in Canada and certain other countries, and locally on broadcast television in the media markets of the participating teams, YouTube said in a statement.

YouTube is the most-watched streaming platform in the U.S., consisting of 12% of all viewership for March, according to Nielsen.

The NFL has an existing deal with YouTube TV for Sunday Ticket, the league’s out-of-market package of games. Those games require a subscription — either $480 per year without YouTube TV or $378 per year for YouTube TV subscribers. YouTube TV is a collection of linear TV networks that approximates a standard cable bundle.

The full 2025 NFL schedule will be released Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Stock

50% of S&P 500 Stocks Just Turned Bullish – What Happens Next?

Stock 1 Min Read

Bullish signal alert! Over 50% of S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200-day moving average.

In this video, Dave explains this key market breadth indicator and what it means for stock market trends. He shows how moving average breadth has reached a bullish milestone, what this means based on historical signals over the past 15 years, and how it compares to the Zweig Breadth Thrust. He also introduces the stoplight market phase technique—a simple but effective method using StockCharts tools to assess market conditions in real time.

This video originally premiered on May 13, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

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Bullish Breadth Improvement Suggests Further Upside For Stocks

Stock 4 Mins Read

We’ve been cautious about the uptrend phase off the April low for a number of reasons, including the lack of breadth support.  While short-term measures of breadth had turned more positive, the long-term breadth conditions had remained firmly in the bearish realm.  With the renewed strength in risk assets over the last week, our long-term breadth measures now indicate a healthy uptrend phase.  

Today we’ll dive a little deeper into one of those breadth indicators, talk about why we track moving average breadth, and show how this recent bullish signal could be a sign of stronger price action to come.

Here we’re showing the S&P 500 on a closing basis along with its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.  Below that, we’re tracking the percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average, followed by the percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average.

Starting at the bottom, we can see that less than 10% of S&P 500 members were above their 50-day moving average at the April 2025 low.  The last time we had reached below the 10% level was back in October 2023, just before a significant market bottom.

While the surge in this short-term breadth indicator over the last month has suggested a tactical rally, the panel above shows how there were still less than 50% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average.  So most stocks had regained the short-term moving average, but were still languishing below the long-term moving average.

As risk assets have surged higher this week, it’s meant enough upside momentum that now most S&P 500 members are back above their 200-day moving average.  Now let’s look at a longer-term time frame and consider previous instances where this long-term moving average breadth indicator has gone from below 25% to above 50%.

We’ve identified eight occurrences of this pattern since the 2009 market low.  In all eight occurrences, the S&P 500 has experienced positive returns in the next 12 months.  And with the exception of the signal in October 2015, we haven’t seen any retest of the previous swing low.

Let’s dig into that 2015 example a little further, and you’ll see what differentiated that particular signal from all the others.

In all the other occurrences, the S&P 500 broke above its 200-day moving average and held that crucial level of support.  In Q4 2015, however, the S&P 500 failed to hold the 200-day moving average, and the breadth indicators soon rotated back to a bearish phase.

It took another attempt in March 2016 before the chart finally resolved to the upside, with the S&P 500 leaving the 200-day moving average behind as it continued to push higher.  Breadth indicators continued to improve as investors began to believe in the bull market of 2016.

I was taught that “nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average,” which also implies that good things can definitely happen above this long-term trend barometer.  At this point, given the bullish breadth rotation that we’ve observed off the April low, I would say that as long as the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average, then we stand a serious chance of further upside from here.

If, however, the SPX fails to hold this crucial line of support, and the index falls back below the 5750 level, then we may be looking at more of a 2015-style retracement as fears rise and stocks drop.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Tariff Tensions Ease, Nasdaq Soars — But is SMH the Emerging Leader?

Stock 6 Mins Read

For months, investors have been on edge over U.S.-China tariff tensions, bracing for everything from fears of empty shelves to rising prices. But after this weekend’s trade talks, where both sides agreed to temporary tariff cuts (emphasis on temporary), stocks surged.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) jumped 1,160 points, while the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) rallied 3.26% and 4.35%, respectively.

Monday’s rally sparked hopes that the worst may be over. Yet analysts remain split: some see signs of a bottom, while others warn this 90-day pause is just the start of a long, messy negotiation.

So here’s the critical question: If this is the bottom, which sector (or industry) leads the rebound, and is it worth investing in it right now? For investors, the answer could be the difference between riding the next bull wave or watching it pass by.

Nasdaq-100 Shows Strength, but Which Sector Leads?

Checking StockCharts’ Market Summary midday on Monday, the Breadth panel showed that the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) had the most percentage of stocks (62%) trading above their 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating early strength and recovery (displayed in the Moving Averages tab).

FIGURE 1. MARKET SUMMARY – INDICES TRADING ABOVE 20 TO 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES. The Nasdaq 100 is the most bullish index above the 200-day, warranting a closer examination.

About 51% of the Nasdaq 100 is made up of Information Technology stocks, while Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services together account for roughly 31% of the index.

Information Technology Dominates the Index

To get a clearer sense of market breadth, it’s useful to examine the sector-level Bullish Percent Index (BPI), which shows the percentage of stocks within each sector exhibiting technical strength.

FIGURE 2. MARKET SUMMARY SECTOR BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. While many sectors have bullish BPIs, the tech sector is leading.

While Communications and Discretionary are exhibiting technical strength, the Information Technology sector is leading the pack, with over 91% of stocks triggering Point & Figure buy signals.

Semiconductors: The Bellwether to Watch

While tech is also comprised of various industries, only one—semiconductors—is widely regarded as a “bellwether” industry. Shifting over to the US Industries panel, semiconductors displayed the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR).

FIGURE 3. BELLWETHER INDUSTRY SCTR SCORES. Among the bellwether industries listed, chipmakers are outpacing everything else.

While my threshold for bullish SCTR reading is 76, the semiconductor industry is the only bellwether industry that clears that bar.

But what might the performance of the Nasdaq 100, semiconductor, and broader market performance look like side by side? To answer this question, I plotted all three on a one-year PerfCharts view.

 FIGURE 4. PERFCHARTS OF SEMICONDUCTORS, NASDAQ 100, AND THE S&P 500. Here, semiconductors aren’t looking so hot, being the laggard of the bunch.

Using VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as the industry proxy, you can see that SMH was leading the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 last summer, but began lagging the two indexes starting in November. SMH was the hardest hit in the aftermath of the Trump tariffs, and, while it’s recovering, its performance is still trailing both indices.

This raises two key questions: First, is SMH’s upswing a true recovery or a temporary bounce? And second, is it worth investing in SMH in this stage of the cycle (in other words, does it present an opportunity to catch an uptrend early on)?

Weekly Chart Signals: Bear Market Drop or Recovery?

Let’s take a closer look at SMH, starting with a weekly chart.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF SMH. From a primary trend perspective, one that can last years, the uptrend is arguably intact, though facing challenges.

Here are the key points to look at:

  • SMH is trading above the 40-week SMA (equivalent to a 200-day SMA) following a sharp price gap up. But can it hold above that level?
  • SMH plunged 39.8% from its 2024 high of around $280 to the 2025 low of $170. This is a textbook bear market drop that raises the question: Is this latest surge just a bear market rally?
  • On the other hand, a long-term Fibonacci Retracement measured from the 2022 low to the 2024 high found support at the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. This kind of pullback is not only “normal”, but also supports the view that SMH’s bullish “primary trend” is still intact.
  • However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is signaling weak buying pressure. For the rally to continue, there needs to be stronger accumulation, something the CMF has yet to confirm.

Daily Chart View: Support, Resistance, and Warning Signs

After looking at SMH from a broader scale, what might the price action reveal if we were to zoom in using a daily chart?

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Zooming in, SMH’s situation looks even less bullish.

This chart tells a tougher story: SMH looks ready to re-enter the months-long trading range it broke to the downside in March.

Should You Invest In SMH? Here’s What to Watch

To answer this question, here’s some points you might want to focus on:

For one, note how closely the stochastic oscillator cycles mirror SMH’s fluctuations. With a reading above 96, SMH may be due for a near-term pullback.

Should it pull back, SMH will need to remain above or bounce at the $210 support range (highlighted in blue) for the current, albeit small, uptrend to remain intact. Below that, it might bounce at the consecutive swing lows—$185 and $170—but such a deep pullback indicates weakness and raises the possibility that SMH may slip back into the trading range (highlighted in yellow) that dominated a lengthy five-month period.

On the upside, SMH needs to eventually clear that same range before challenging its all-time highs at the $281 level. If SMH manages to do so, it’s likely to unfold in a series of higher highs and higher lows, which will take some time to develop.

At the Close: A Bullish Setup or Bull Trap?

While SMH has begun to exhibit significant technical strength, warning signs remain. If you’re bullish on semiconductors, the next few weeks will be critical. Holding the $210 support zone is key for keeping the uptrend intact. A drop toward $185 or $170 would raise serious doubts about the sustainability of the current rally.

If SMH can clear its trading range and build a structure of higher highs and higher lows, it could be poised to challenge its all-time highs once again. Until then, stay cautious and keep a close eye on the technical levels discussed above.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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