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Iran’s foreign minister said Sunday that regardless of whether a nuclear deal is reached with the U.S., enrichment will continue.

Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi addressed negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in a post on X regarding Iran’s ‘peaceful nuclear program.’

In the statement, Araghchi pointed out that U.S. officials privy to the discussions are free to state whatever they want to ward off special interest groups or malign actors that set the agendas of previous administrations.

‘Iran can only control what we Iranians do, and that is to avoid negotiating in public—particularly given the current dissonance we are seeing between what our U.S. interlocutors say in public and in private, and from one week to the other,’ Araghchi said. ‘Our stance on Iran’s rights as a [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] member is crystal clear, and there is no scenario in which Iranians will permit deviance from that. 

‘Mastering enrichment technology is a hard-earned and homegrown scientific achievement; an outcome of great sacrifice of both blood and treasure,’ he continued. ‘If the U.S. is interested in ensuring that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, a deal is within reach, and we are ready for a serious conversation to achieve a solution that will forever ensure that outcome. Enrichment in Iran, however, will continue with or without a deal.’

The statement comes just days after President Donald Trump announced on Friday that the U.S. had given Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal.

While making the announcement, Trump said Iranian officials know they have to move quickly or ‘something bad is going to happen.’

U.S. and Iranian officials have held four rounds of talks, primarily in Oman, since Trump took office to address Tehran’s nuclear program.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, often referred to as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, noted in a March report that Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium had alarmingly grown from 182 kg to 275 kg, approximately 401 pounds to 606 pounds, in early 2025.

‘Once you’re at 60, you’re 90% of the way there. You are, in essence, a threshold nuclear weapons state, which is what Iran basically has become,’ Rubio said Thursday on ‘Hannity’.

‘They are at the threshold of a nuclear weapon. If they decided to do so, they could do so very quickly. If they stockpile enough of that 60% enriched, they could very quickly turn it into 90 and weaponize it. That’s the danger we face right now. That’s the urgency here,’ he said.

The president also said Thursday in the United Arab Emirates that the U.S. and Iran have ‘sort of’ agreed to terms on a nuclear deal.

‘Iran has sort of agreed to the terms. They’re not going to make — I call it, in a friendly way — nuclear dust,’ Trump told reporters. ‘We’re not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran.’

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman, Ashley Carnahan and Christina Shaw contributed to this report.

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Russia targeted Ukraine with its largest single drone attack yet just hours ahead of President Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin about ending the war. 

Russia on Sunday fired a total of 273 exploding drones and decoys targeting Ukraine’s Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions, according to Ukraine’s air force. Of those, 88 were intercepted and 128 lost, likely being electronically jammed.  

The barrage was the biggest drone attack since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Yuriy Ihnat, head of the air force’s communications department, told the Associated Press. 

It came after Trump said he would be ‘speaking, by telephone, to President Vladimir Putin of Russia on Monday, at 10:00 a.m.’ regarding the war in Ukraine. 

‘The subjects of the call will be, stopping the ‘bloodbath’ that is killing, on average, more than 5,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade,’ Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday. ‘I will then be speaking to President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and then, with President Zelenskyy, various members of NATO.’ 

‘Hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end,’ Trump added. ‘God bless us all!!!’ 

The previous largest known single drone attack from Russia against Ukraine was on the eve of the war’s third anniversary, when Russia pounded Ukraine with 267 drones. 

Kyiv regional Gov. Mykola Kalashnyk said a 28-year-old woman was killed in Sunday’s drone attack, and three other people, including a 4-year-old child, were wounded, the AP reported. 

Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio also met with Zelenskyy in Rome Sunday for ongoing peace talks. 

‘During our talks we discussed negotiations in Istanbul to where the Russians sent a low-level delegation of non-decision-makers. I reaffirmed that Ukraine is ready to be engaged in real diplomacy and underscored the importance of a full and unconditional ceasefire as soon as possible,’ Zelenskyy shared on X regarding the meeting.  

‘We have also touched upon the need for sanctions against Russia, bilateral trade, defense cooperation, battlefield situation and upcoming prisoners exchange. Pressure is needed against Russia until they are eager to stop the war. And, of course, we talked about our joint steps to achieve a just and durable peace,’ he continued.  

World leaders converged in Rome this weekend for Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural mass at the Vatican on Sunday, with Vance leading the U.S. delegation. Zelenskyy also attended the mass. 

Fox News’ Emma Colton and the Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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Former President Joe Biden is commenting publicly for the first time Monday after it was announced he was diagnosed with an ‘aggressive form’ of prostate cancer. 

‘Cancer touches us all. Like so many of you, Jill and I have learned that we are strongest in the broken places. Thank you for lifting us up with love and support,’ Biden wrote on X. 

Biden’s team revealed Sunday that the former president ‘was seen for a new finding of a prostate nodule after experiencing increasing urinary symptoms.’ 

‘On Friday, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, characterized by a Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5) with metastasis to the bone,’ it said in a statement. 

‘While this represents a more aggressive form of the disease, the cancer appears to be hormone-sensitive which allows for effective management. The President and his family are reviewing treatment options with his physicians,’ the statement added. 

Former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and President Donald Trump have since commented on Biden’s cancer diagnosis. 

‘Michelle and I are thinking of the entire Biden family. Nobody has done more to find breakthrough treatments for cancer in all its forms than Joe, and I am certain he will fight this challenge with his trademark resolve and grace. We pray for a fast and full recovery,’ Obama noted in posts on social media. 

Trump said, ‘Melania and I are saddened to hear about Joe Biden’s recent medical diagnosis.’

‘We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery,’ he added in a post on Truth Social. 

Clinton said, ‘My friend Joe Biden’s always been a fighter,’ and ‘Hillary and I are rooting for him and are keeping him, Jill, and the entire family in our thoughts.’ 

Fox News’ Stepheny Price, Peter Doocy and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report. 

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Former President Joe Biden lashed out against special counsel Robert Hur over a report in which he described the longtime lawmaker as a ‘sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.’

The part of Hur’s report that most angered Biden was the suggestion that the then-president could not remember when his son, Beau, died. However, new audio obtained by Axios sheds light on Biden’s lapses in memory.

In February 2024, Biden and several high-profile Democrats — as well as media personalities — attacked Hur. During a press conference on Hur’s report, Biden said, ‘There’s some attention paid to some language in the report about my recollection of events. There’s even a reference that I don’t remember when my son died. How in the hell dare he raise that?’

Then-Vice President Kamala Harris slammed Hur in February 2024, saying his report was ‘gratuitous, inaccurate and inappropriate.’ She also suggested that it was ‘clearly politically motivated.’ Harris recalled Biden’s alleged sharpness at the time, noting that Hur’s interview took place on Oct. 8, 2023 — just one day after Hamas’ attack on Israel. Harris said she was ‘in almost every meeting’ with Biden and that he was ‘in front of and on top of it all.’

Reps. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., and Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., grilled Hur when he testified on Capitol Hill in March 2024. Both lawmakers attempted to get Hur to say that his report ‘exonerated’ Biden — which he did not do. Then–Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., also criticized the special counsel, suggesting that Hur knew his description of Biden would ‘ignite a political firestorm,’ something Hur denied.

Former Obama advisor David Axelrod also criticized the report, calling it a ‘shiv the special counsel stuck into the Biden reelection campaign,’ according to CNN.

On Friday, Axios published a bombshell report that included audio recordings from Biden’s interview with Hur, something the previous administration refused to release. The audio includes long pauses in which Biden struggled to recall the dates of several major events, including when President Donald Trump was elected to office for his first term, his son’s death or his exit from office as vice president.

Since his report was released, Hur has seen two key moments of vindication aside from Friday’s report. The first came when the transcript of his interview was released in March 2024. At the time, the White House refused to release the audio, citing fears of AI deepfakes. Hur appeared to receive further vindication when Biden had his disastrous debate against then-candidate Trump in June 2024. Less than a month after the debate, Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Harris.  

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Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. was even more demented than we knew.
Last night, excerpts leaked from Biden’s October 2023 interview with Robert Hur, the federal prosecutor who investigated him for possessing classified documents.

They are awful. They show a man in severe cognitive decline. Biden couldn’t recall even basic facts, like when elections are held. Yes, Joe Biden — who had lusted for the presidency his entire life — thought Donald Trump had won in November 2017, not 2016. It wasn’t a verbal slip. He didn’t know. An aide had to correct him.

Even that summary doesn’t capture Biden’s struggles.

What he says is bad. How he says it is worse. His voice is weak and whispery. He goes silent for stretches, loses his train of thought, offers oddly emotional asides about his son Beau — though he could not remember when Beau died. He seems not to remember being vice president; he speaks of being a senator and then jumps to running for president.

In the end, the classified documents investigation went nowhere. (Like the similar case involving Donald Trump, it shouldn’t have). But along the way, Hur — a well-respected prosecutor who had been the U.S. Attorney for Maryland in Trump’s first term — discovered something far more important: proof of Biden’s incapacity.

The Hur interview is so crucial because Biden and his handlers went to such lengths to protect Biden from press or public scrutiny even before the 2020 election.

Biden used teleprompters for his speeches, of course. His press conferences were rare and closely scripted. He had been told what questions would be asked in advance. Biden’s few unscripted, live interactions visible to the public generally came when he left the White House to walk to Marine One. He would occasionally stumble over to the ‘gaggle’ of reporters yelling questions at him and speak for a few seconds.

Hur’s interview with Biden was likely the only time during Biden’s entire presidency when he faced lengthy questioning he could not control. It shows why Biden and his handlers tried so hard to avoid similar situations.

Hur wrote in his report on the investigation last year that Biden was ‘a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.’ The audio suggests that description was kind.

You wouldn’t trust the guy in this interview to drive to the grocery store. 
Biden had the nuclear codes.

Still worse, Hur interviewed Biden in 2023. If Biden and the people around him had had their way, he would have been president through January 2029. The interview suggests he’ll be nearly vegetative by then — if he lives that long.

When the Justice Department released Hur’s report on his investigation in February 2024, the legacy media immediately downplayed its importance and attacked Hur’s motives.

… the legacy media is only the second-most important villain here.It was Biden and the people around him, most notably his wife Jill and son Hunter, who insisted that he was fit to serve, and would continue to be until he was 86. 

‘In what is supposedly a legal document, these inclusions certainly looked gratuitous—to say the least,’ the New Yorker wrote in an article about Biden’s ‘righteous fury’ over the report.

Two days later, the Washington Post would claim in a headline Hur had a ‘five-hour face-off’ with Biden and write:

‘Hur’s description of Biden’s demeanor as that of a ‘well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory’ would infuriate Biden’s aides, who saw it as sharply at odds with what occurred as the president sat for voluntary questioning.’

Sharply at odds, huh?

I have written before about the media’s dereliction of duty in covering Biden’s decline, both before and after the Hur report, which continued until his disastrous June 27 debate in Atlanta made covering for him impossible. And I will come back to the media’s failure. Hur’s report made clear that Biden’s cognitive impairment was severe and the White House was covering it up. That scheme should have been the story of the 2024 campaign from the moment the report became public.

This is not 20/20 hindsight on my part. On Feb. 9, 2024, the day the report came out, I wrote that it actually might be WORSE for Biden than an actual indictment.

Most of the media looked the other way, even as Biden’s flubs and lapses visibly worsened in the spring of 2024 despite the protective cocoon around him. But the legacy media is only the second-most important villain here.
It was Biden and the people around him, most notably his wife Jill and son Hunter, who insisted that he was fit to serve, and would continue to be until he was 86. Both Jill and Hunt had their reasons. Jill’s lust for the trappings of power would be almost comic in its nakedness if it weren’t so dangerous; Hunter has champagne taste and a beer budget (or, more accurately in his case, cocaine taste and a meth budget).

But, of course, all of them, including Biden, knew the truth. If they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have gone to such great lengths to hide it.

Imagine if Biden had won. Imagine if he had somehow found his way through his debates with Trump and then gone back to the presidential cocoon. Imagine if the media had insisted through Election Day that the videos showing his decline were merely ‘cheap fakes’ – as it did throughout the spring. We’d be approaching a Constitutional crisis. Our system is not parliamentary; it has no way to replace an unfit President quickly or easily. And in running for a second term when he did not have to, Biden showed that he would not give up power unless he was forced to do so.

Robert Hur spoke truth to power. He’s a hero.

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In an emotional and widely shared moment, President Donald J. Trump spoke directly with Edan Alexander, the 21-year-old American-Israeli soldier who was recently freed from Hamas captivity, during a phone call captured on camera and released by the White House.

‘Mr. President,’ Alexander greeted Trump at the start of the call, visibly moved. ‘You’re the only reason I’m here. You saved my life.’

The phone conversation, which took place while Alexander was recovering at Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, came just days after his dramatic release from Gaza, where he was held hostage for over 580 days following his abduction by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023.

President Trump greeted Edan with a bit of humor and humility, saying ‘I’m very nervous talking to you, Edan, because you’re a much bigger celebrity than I am.’

Trump also expressed American solidarity and the administration’s commitment to bringing all hostages home while on the call.

‘You’re an American, and we love you,’ Trump told Alexander. ‘We’re going to take good care of you. And your parents are incredible. I saw your mother. She was pushing me around a little bit—putting a lot of pressure on me.’

‘Like a good mom!’ exclaimed Edan’s mother in the background.

The heartfelt exchange was posted online by the official White House account and has quickly gone viral, drawing praise from across the political spectrum for its display of humanity and international unity.

Alexander’s release came amid intensified U.S. diplomatic pressure and quiet negotiations, coordinated in part by senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Adam Boehler. 

Trump had previously signaled his determination to secure the freedom of American citizens held abroad and made Alexander’s case a top priority.

The Alexander family issued a statement thanking President Trump directly, along with the negotiation team and the Israeli Defense Forces, calling the outcome ‘a miracle rooted in strength, diplomacy, and prayer.’

Edan Alexander’s homecoming has reignited calls to bring home the remaining hostages still held in Gaza. 

A coalition of 65 former hostages recently signed a letter urging both President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ‘build on this breakthrough’ and intensify efforts for a comprehensive agreement to ensure every hostage’s safe return.

Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged the success of this combined effort, stating, ‘This was achieved thanks to our military pressure and the diplomatic pressure applied by President Trump. This is a winning combination.’

The White House did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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The White House on Saturday released a study estimating that 8.2 to 9.2 million more Americans could be without health insurance as a result of an ensuing recession if President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ on the budget does not pass. 

The finding comes from a White House Council of Economic Advisers memo titled, ‘Health Insurance Opportunity Cost if 2025 Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill Does Not Pass.’ 

The research assumes that the U.S. had approximately 27 million uninsured people in 2025. If the budget bill does not pass, that could increase to approximately 36 million uninsured people, far closer to the approximately 50 million people who were uninsured before the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, in 2010, according to the memo.

The memo says the estimate is ‘based on the assumption that states which expanded Medicaid with relatively generous eligibility will pull back to meet balanced budget requirements and try to provide more unemployment support during a severe recession.’ It also qualifies its conclusions by saying the analysis assumes ‘no policy countermeasures,’ which the White House describes as a ‘very unlikely but plausible worse case’ scenario. 

The White House projects that the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts in 2026 and other shocks would trigger a ‘moderate to severe recession.’ The economic advisers report that a ‘major recession’ would result in reduced consumer spending as a result of higher individual taxes, lower small business investment and hiring as a result higher pass-through individual taxes, global confidence shock including concerns about U.S. competitiveness, and dollar deflation tightening credit and pushing real interest rates higher. 

According to the advisers’ ‘upper bound’ estimate of the impact of not extending the Trump tax cuts, U.S. GDP could contract by approximately 4% over two years – similar to the 2008 recession. Unemployment could increase by four percentage points, resulting in approximately 6.5 million job losses. Of those 6.5 million job losses, 60% had employer-sponsored insurance, so the White House projects approximately 3.9 million people would lose coverage and become uninsured as a result. 

The memo also anticipates a loss of individual and marketplace coverage, as those already without employer-sponsored insurance are no longer able to afford to purchase insurance themselves. The White House expects a 15% drop from approximately 22 million enrolled in 2026 to approximately 3.3 million losing coverage. 

Without the passage of the ‘big, beautiful bill,’ Medicaid and ACA subsidized plan enrollment could experience 10% enrollment frictions, resulting in approximately 500,000 to 1 million people losing or failing to gain coverage, the memo states. The expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts would disproportionately affect non-citizens, gig workers and early retirees, according to the White House. The advisers assess that individuals in those working classes without employer-sponsored insurance would no longer be able to afford coverage as a result of a recession, leading to 500,000 to 1 million insurance losses among ‘vulnerable segments.’

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is laboring to get the ‘One Big Beautiful Act’ through the House by a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline despite divisions among Republicans, who maintain control of the lower chamber by a razor-thin margin. 

The 1,116-page bill includes more than $5 trillion in tax cuts, costs that are partially offset by spending cuts elsewhere and other changes in the tax code, and would make permanent the tax cuts from Trump’s first term. 

It also realizes many of Trump‘s campaign promises, including temporarily ending taxes on overtime and tips for many workers, creating a new $10,000 tax break on auto loan interest for American-made cars, and even creating a new tax-free ‘MAGA account’ that would contribute $1,000 to children born in his second term.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino issued a sharp and public condemnation of the bureau’s former director, James Comey, Saturday, accusing Comey of disgracing the agency as authorities investigate Comey’s controversial ’86 47′ Instagram post.

In a statement posted to X, Bongino said Comey’s actions are another example of failed leadership that continues to haunt the agency.

‘Former FBI Director James Comey brought shame to the FBI badge, yet again, this past week,’ Bongino wrote. ‘The Director and I spend an inordinate amount of time cleaning up messes left behind by former Director Comey. And his latest actions are no exception.’

Comey, dismissed by President Donald Trump in 2017, sparked outrage after posting a photo to social media Thursday showing seashells arranged to say ’86 47,’ a phrase widely understood to mean to ‘get rid of’ the 47th president. Though Comey later deleted the post and claimed it was misunderstood, many, including Trump, say the meaning was clear.

‘He knew exactly what that meant. A child knows what that meant,’ Trump said Friday on Fox News. ‘If you’re the FBI director, and you don’t know what that meant, that meant ‘assassination,’ and it says it loud and clear.’

Comey offered a follow-up statement online, saying he ‘didn’t realize some folks associate those numbers with violence’ and that it ‘never occurred to me.’

Bongino strongly rejected that explanation, describing it as part of a larger pattern of misconduct. In his post, Bongino wrote:

‘As the Deputy Director of the FBI, I am charged, standing with Director Patel, with managing the most powerful law enforcement agency in the world. The Director and I are also responsible for looking at grave mistakes made by people within the FBI in the past, and ensuring they never happen again.’

He stressed the FBI’s continuing commitment to supporting federal law enforcement partners investigating any threats involving public officials, past or present.

‘While the FBI does not have primary investigative responsibility for investigating threats against the POTUS, and we do not make prosecutorial decisions, we do have the ability and authority to support other federal agencies for violations of federal law,’ Bongino said. 

‘And we certainly have a responsibility to comment on matters involving former FBI officials, and allegations of law-breaking.’

The U.S. Secret Service has already interviewed Comey about the incident. FBI Director Kash Patel said in a separate statement that the bureau is ‘in communication with the Secret Service and Director Curran.’

Bongino noted that this latest controversy is part of a general legacy of dysfunction inherited from Comey’s leadership, which he and Patel are working to fix from the inside out.

‘As I’ve stated in the past, I cannot post openly about all the things the Director and I are doing to reform the enterprise, but I assure you, they are happening,’ Bongino wrote. ‘Sadly, many of those agenda items are the result of former Director Comey’s poor decision-making and atrocious leadership.

‘And to those who doubt me, I assure you, when you see what the Director and I see from the inside, it’s even worse.’

Bongino said he chose to post his statement now because his scheduled interview with FOX Business anchor Maria Bartiromo, which will air Sunday on Sunday Morning Futures,’ was recorded earlier in the week, before the Comey post was made public.

‘I’m addressing this now, rather than on our interview with Maria Bartiromo [Sunday], because we recorded that interview earlier in the week prior to the incident with Comey,’ he explained.

He closed with a message to the country that echoed his support for the law enforcement community and the reforms underway at the FBI.

‘God bless America, and all those who defend Her,’ he said.

Bongino, a former NYPD officer and longtime Secret Service agent, was appointed deputy director of the FBI earlier this year. 

His leadership under Director Kash Patel reflects a broader effort by the Trump administration to restore accountability and integrity to the FBI after years of what many see as politically motivated misconduct.

The FBI did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for further comment.

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For those of you who are a bit more steeped in technical analysis, you’ve likely heard of Dow Theory. A set of principles developed from Charles Dow, a journalist/analyst who founded what’s now the Wall Street Journal back in the late 19th century, Dow’s insight was foundational to modern technical analysis.

Here’s a question: How can we view today’s market using Dow Theory’s six core tenets?

The market seems to be turning around, especially after the recent 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs. What insights might Dow Theory give us about the current reversal? Let’s dive in.

#1: The Market Discounts All Known Information

Here’s the thing: When tariffs are used as a nimble and adjustable strategy for hardball negotiations, how can anyone possibly price in the data? Too many unknowns are hiding behind the cards played for the market to discount any data driven by fundamentals and geopolitics.

So, this tenet can probably be skipped for now.

#2: The Market Has Three Movements

We’d have to modify this slightly, as markets, several of which are globally accessible 24/5 via futures and digital platforms, have significantly altered the market dynamics since Dow’s time.

Still, his notion of primary and secondary trends is as relevant today as it was then. But increased market access and trading volume have created tertiary or micro-trends on a scale above the Dow’s third movement of daily fluctuations.

Take a look at this 15-year monthly chart of the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX).

FIGURE 1. MONTHLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The primary trend is up and is reversing from a deep secondary correction.

According to this tenet, one way to interpret this is that the primary trend is bullish and the corrections and bear markets, highlighted in yellow, are all secondary trends, as dramatic as they were on a smaller time scale.

Key insight: SPX’s primary trend is bullish, but the question is whether it has pulled out of its bearish secondary trend. It’s now trading above its 10-month simple moving average (SMA), which is roughly equivalent to a 200-day SMA, but whether it can hold is something to monitor.

#3: Primary Trends Have Three Phases

Is the broader market in an accumulation phase, where professional investors buy undervalued assets, a public participation phase, where retail investors are jumping in, or a distribution phase, where smart money sells to the euphoric retail crowd?

Take a look at this weekly chart.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. These indicators are based on surveys of retail and professional investor sentiment.

Two ways to gauge retail and professional sentiment and participation are by analyzing the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) surveys (respectively). Look at the current week (blue dotted line) and note how the AAII Bull-Bear indicator representing retail sentiment is still net bearish while the NAAIM indicator shows accumulation as the S&P 500 gaps above the 40-day SMA (equivalent to its 200-day counterpart).

In the weeks leading up to the current week, as the NAAIM levels increased while the AAII remained net bearish, the contrast between the two arguably signals the strong likelihood that the broader market is in the accumulation phase. But remain cautious as, with the first tenet on known information, any new information or change in global trade policy can disrupt this picture, sending the $SPX back below the 40-week.

#4: The Averages Must Confirm Each Other

Back in his day, Charles Dow was referring to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN). Today, most investors look at the $INDU alongside $SPX and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ).

FIGURE 3. CHART OF THE BIG THREE U.S. MARKET INDICES. Visually, the charts look similar, but a closer look is warranted to see the differences in detail.

While the differences in price action are nuanced, a quick scan of all three on the StockCharts Market Summary page will tell you that all three indexes are more or less on even footing. But in the interest of saving space and not zooming in on each chart,at the time of writing, only the $SPX and $COMPQ are trading above their 200-day SMA; $INDU is just right below it.

Another way to measure this is by comparing market breadth, aka participation.

FIGURE 4. MARKET SUMMARY OF BREADTH AND BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. These indicators focus on market participation, something that price alone can’t show.

The window on the left tells you the percentage of stocks in each index trading above their 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Given the importance of the 200-day SMA, we’ll focus on that. While this window doesn’t show $INDU, you can see that over 54% of $SPX stocks and only 33% of $COMPQ stocks are trading above their 200-day SMA. However, the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX), a more tech-concentrated subgroup of $COMPQ, has the most bullish reading, with 64% of its stocks trading above this key level.

Switching over to the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) window on the right, the $SPX and $INDU have the strongest bullish participation with 74% and 83% of their stocks, respectively, signaling Point & Figure Buy Signals. The $COMPQ, at only 50%, is lagging the two (not the case with $NDX, however, which is also very bullish).

So, do the averages confirm each other? More or less, yes, with $COMPQ as the laggard. This may indicate a bullish turnaround in the secondary trend, but the secondary trend is also extremely vulnerable to sudden shifts in the geopolitical environment.

#5: Volume Confirms the Trend

Volume-based indicators that can help you gauge buying/selling pressure and accumulation and distribution.

FIGURE 5. CHART OF THE BIG THREE US MARKET INDEXES WITH VOLUME INDICATORS. Volume-based indicators like Chaikin Money Flow and Accumulation/Distribution Line give valuable insight into buying/selling pressure and accumulation/distribution.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive in all three indexes, indicating more buying pressure than selling pressure. While the CMF readings are not as strong as they were in January and February, you might expect the levels to rise if the overall market begins to turn. The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) is also exhibiting a steady increase, more so in the $SPX and $COMPQ than in the $INDU, which appears to be flattening.

In summary, volume is confirming the turnaround, but tentatively and cautiously.

#6: A Trend Remains in Effect Until a Clear Reversal Occurs

This is where a close examination of the underlying secondary trend structure is critical. You may have different ways to gauge when a market is trending up or down, or not trending at all.

I usually begin (and sometimes end) by looking at the relationship between price and sequential swing highs and swing lows. For example, take a look at this daily chart of $INDU.

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX. The index has reversed to the upside, but it’s important to monitor these key levels to determine whether the current reversal will develop into an uptrend.

Note that I’m using the ZigZag line to market the key swing highs and lows on the chart.

$INDU’s downtrend reversed when it broke above 40,750, the two swing high points that marked a key resistance level. Now, $INDU is aiming to challenge the next swing highs (resistance levels), which are situated in the range between 42,500 and 43,000. For the reversal to develop into an uptrend, $INDU must stay above the most recent swing low of 37,750 and eventually break above 43,000.

In short, and according to Dow theory, the downtrend has been broken, but the uptrend has not yet been confirmed by the price action.

At the Close

Dow Theory may be over a century old, but its principles remain surprisingly resilient, especially when viewed through the lens of today’s volatile, information-saturated markets. Right now, we’re seeing a bullish reversal in the markets. However, this reversal is happening on the secondary trend level, which is extremely vulnerable to sudden and severe shifts in today’s volatile geopolitical environment. In short, the trend may be turning, but as Charles Dow himself might suggest, don’t call it an uptrend until it proves itself.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are trend-following indicators and it is important to set realistic expectations.

***** This is an abbreviated version of a research report covering the 200-day SMA, performance improvements and a twist for QQQ. Recent reports at TrendInvestorPro covered the V-Reversal, the Bottoming Process and an Exit Strategy for the Zweight Breadth Thrust. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access. *****

The chart below shows SPY with the 200-day SMA (blue). This 200-day cross captured two big uptrends since 2020 and foreshadowed the bear market in 2022. Even though these three signals look great, there were plenty of whipsaws along the way. SPY crossed the 200-day SMA 141 times since 2005, which averages 7 crosses per year. Averages can be deceptive because some years have more crosses than others. SPY did not cross its 200-day in 2021 and 2024, but there were 22 crosses between January 2022 and March 2023.

The indicator window shows Percent above MA (1,200,1) to better highlight these crosses. It turns positive (green) with a bullish cross and negative (red) with a bearish cross. The values are the percentage difference between the close and the 200-day SMA.  

There is no such thing as a perfect indicator. Trend-following indicators are great at catching big trends, but they are also prone to whipsaws (failed signals). Whipsaws are simply the price of admission for a trend-following strategy. We must take the good (big trends) with the bad (whipsaws). As the chart above confirms, trend-following works over time because one good trend pays for the whipsaws.

Chartists can improve 200-day SMA signals with a little smoothing. For example, use a 5-day SMA instead of the close. Since 2005, the 5-day SMA crossed its 200-day SMA 55 times, which averages out to 3 per year. Fewer signals means fewer whipsaws. Also note that this smoothing generated higher returns and lower drawdowns.

The chart above shows the SPY with Percent above MA (5,200,1). This indicator captures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. Instead of 22 crosses between January 2022 and March 2023, the 5-day SMA crossed the 200-day SMA just 8 times. This indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

We can reduce whipsaws even more by adding a signal filter. This next section will cover signal filters and performance metrics for SPY. We then show how other ETFs perform and add little twist to improve performance for QQQ signals. This section continues for subscribers to TrendInvestorPro. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access. 

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