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Courtroom combat: Inside the federal judiciary system where Trump’s agenda is under assault

Politics 4 Mins Read

The legal resistance to President Donald Trump’s second term is in full swing with more than 120 lawsuits filed since Jan. 20 by states, advocacy groups and individuals targeting his executive orders and policy agenda.

As the lawsuits move through the judiciary, understanding the structure of the federal court system can help clarify how these challenges are likely to unfold.

Article III of the U.S. Constitution establishes the Supreme Court along with ‘inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish.’ The Constitution also states that judges shall hold their offices during a period of ‘good behavior.’

The federal judiciary has three main levels: district courts (trial courts), circuit courts (the first level of appeal) and the Supreme Court (the final appellate authority). There are 94 district courts, 13 circuit courts and one Supreme Court.

To hear a case, a court must have personal jurisdiction (authority over the parties involved), subject matter jurisdiction (authority to hear the type of legal issue at hand) and proper venue (the correct geographic location for the case to be tried).

Unlike state courts, which have broad authority, federal courts are courts of ‘limited jurisdiction,’ which means they can only hear cases authorized by the Constitution or federal law. Each lawsuit filed against the Trump administration raises a federal question, giving federal courts subject-matter jurisdiction.

Each district court has at least one United States district judge appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate for a life term. Plaintiffs who lose at the district court level can appeal to a federal appellate court.

Appellate courts, also known as circuit courts, hear appeals from district courts within their geographic boundaries. Each circuit covers multiple states. For example, the Fifth Circuit includes Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.

Each circuit also has multiple judges, ranging from six total judges to 29. Appeals to the circuit courts are first heard by a panel of three judges. Parties must file briefs to the court, arguing why the trial court’s decision should either be affirmed or reversed.

After briefs are filed, oral arguments are scheduled during which attorneys from both sides present their case and answer questions from a panel of judges. In some instances, the full court may hear a case in what’s called an en banc session. The Ninth Circuit, due to its size, follows a modified en banc process.

A circuit court’s decision is binding on all lower courts within that circuit. As such, those courts must follow that holding. Other circuits can look to that circuit’s holding as reference, but they are not bound by it.

A case can generally only be appealed once a final decision has been issued. However, some issues can be appealed before a final decision is made via what’s called an interlocutory appeal.

Parties can appeal a circuit court’s decision to the U.S. Supreme Court by filing a writ of certiorari, which is a request for the court to review the case. The Supreme Court isn’t required to take the case and denies most petitions, granting review in less than 1% of appeals. When cert is denied, the lower court’s ruling remains in place.

A circuit split is when circuits disagree on a particular legal matter. This will generally prompt the Supreme Court to grant cert in a case. If cert is granted, parties must file briefs and conduct oral arguments. 

Each circuit is assigned to a specific Supreme Court justice who handles certain appeals from that region, such as emergency applications and administrative requests. For example, Chief Justice Roberts oversees the D.C. Circuit, the 4th Circuit and the Federal Circuit. The assigned justice may act alone or refer the matter to the full court at their discretion.

The Trump administration has already appealed various decisions to the Supreme Court via emergency appeals. On March 28, the administration asked the court to review a temporary restraining order that blocked the administration’s use of an 18th-century wartime law to deport Venezuelan nationals, including alleged members of the gang Tren de Aragua, from the United States. 

The appeal came shortly after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued a 2-1 ruling to uphold the district court’s decision blocking the administration. 

Fox News Digital’s Breanne Deppisch contributed to this report. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Politics

District judges’ orders blocking Trump agenda face hearing in top Senate committee

Politics 3 Mins Read

The Senate Judiciary Committee is holding a hearing to examine the influx of nationwide orders against the Trump administration by federal district judges. 

Last week, Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, revealed the details of the event, set one day after the House committee’s hearing on the same subject. 

‘Since the courts and the executive branch are on an unsustainable collision course, Congress must step in and provide clarity,’ he said in a statement last week. ‘Our hearings will explore legislative solutions to bring the balance of power back in check.’

The hearing, titled, ‘Rule by District Judges II: Exploring Legislative Solutions to the Bipartisan Problem of Universal Injunctions,’ will feature testimony from John N. Matthews Professor of Law at Notre Dame Samuel Bray, partner at Boies Schiller Flexner Jesse Panuccio, who was previously the acting associate attorney general at the Department of Justice (DOJ), and the chairman of the DOJ’s Regulatory Reform Task Force and vice chairman of the DOJ’s Task Force on Market Integrity and Consumer Fraud, as well as Agnes Williams Sesquicentennial Professor of Federal Courts at Georgetown University Law Center Stephen I. Vladeck.

After revealing details of the hearing, Grassley rolled out his own bill to tackle the issue. 

‘These nationwide injunctions have become a favorite tool for those seeking to obstruct Mr. Trump’s agenda,’ he wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. ‘More than two-thirds of all universal injunctions issued over the past 25 years were levied against the first Trump administration. In the past two months alone, judges have issued at least 15 universal injunctions against the administration—surpassing the 14 President Biden faced throughout his four-year term.’

Grassley’s legislation would restrain the lower courts’ ability to issue nationwide orders, and they would no longer be able to stop ‘legitimate executive action’ by granting orders to entities or individuals who are not parties to the lawsuit. 

While similar bills have been introduced by Grassley’s GOP colleagues in both the Senate and House, it is unclear whether the issue will get floor votes, as it would need to amass more than 60 votes in the upper chamber to beat the filibuster. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has not elaborated much on the issue and, when asked about it, he told reporters, ‘At the end of the day, there is a process, and there’s an appeals process. And, you know, I suspect that’s ultimately how it’s going to be ended.’

President Donald Trump has made his frustration with nationwide injunctions clear, urging action on them publicly. 

‘Unlawful Nationwide Injunctions by Radical Left Judges could very well lead to the destruction of our Country!’ the president said in a recent Truth Social post. ‘These people are Lunatics, who do not care, even a little bit, about the repercussions from their very dangerous and incorrect Decisions and Rulings.’

‘If Justice Roberts and the United States Supreme Court do not fix this toxic and unprecedented situation IMMEDIATELY, our Country is in very serious trouble!’ he continued. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Politics

Dems mum on Trump’s court fights despite trying to limit Biden-blocking judges

Politics 4 Mins Read

Democrats have remained relatively quiet while President Donald Trump and Republicans hammer federal district judges for churning out nationwide orders halting his administration’s actions. 

But during President Joe Biden’s tenure, they decried similar wide-ranging injunctions and even sought to remedy the issue with legislation. 

In 2023, Sen. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, debuted a measure to give the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia sole jurisdiction over any cases with national implications. 

‘When parties are able to choose their judges, it creates the perception that they are able to predetermine their case’s outcome, compromising the integrity of our federal justice system,’ she said in a statement at the time. 

‘Activist plaintiffs should not be able to hand-pick individual judges to set nationwide policy, which is why it’s critical we address the issue of judge shopping in our federal courts. By routing cases with national implications through the D.C. District Court, which has expertise in cases challenging federal agency action, the Stop Judge Shopping Act will strengthen trust in our federal justice system and help ensure major cases are decided based on the law, not the ideological agenda of any one judge.’

The bill wouldn’t have ended nationwide injunctions as Republicans and Trump have sought, but it would give all jurisdiction on such decisions to one court, potentially reducing the probability of such orders being levied against Biden or other Democrat presidents. 

The D.C. court is made up of 11 district judges appointed by former Presidents Biden and Barack Obama, and four were appointed by Trump. The court’s chief judge is Obama-appointee James Boasberg, who is at the center of a key battle with the Trump administration over deportation flights using the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 wartime immigration law. 

A similar measure was proposed by then-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., in addition to 37 other Democrats in 2024. The bill would have required cases involving broad injunctions to be randomly assigned in order to ‘promote uniformity and fairness.’

Hirono, Schumer and Whitehouse did not provide comment to Fox News Digital when asked if they still supported legislative action and if they backed any of the Republican bills. 

Multiple Republicans in Congress have rolled out legislation this Congress to explicitly prevent district-level courts from issuing such wide-ranging orders, including Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. 

In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, he wrote, ‘The obvious solution is to limit district courts to resolving the cases only between the parties before them.’

‘Under my bill, lower courts could no longer block legitimate executive action by issuing orders to nonparties to the lawsuit. The bill would also make TROs against the government immediately appealable, to make sure that prudence wins out over rash decisions handed down in the heat of a political moment,’ he explained. 

The top judiciary Republican also pointed to past grievances Democrats have had with the practice of nationwide court orders. 

‘Two-hundred forty Democratic lawmakers, including Sens. Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin, in 2023, submitted a friend-of-the-court brief warning of the ‘perilous consequences’ resulting from a district judge’s move to block the abortion pill mifepristone,’ he recalled. 

‘Justice Elena Kagan has similarly expressed dismay.’

The brief was filed to plead with the high court to overrule the nationwide injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, which suspended FDA approval of mifepristone. 

‘The consequences of the Fifth Circuit’s decision could extend far beyond mifepristone, for it undermines the science-based, expert-driven process that Congress designed for determining whether drugs are safe and effective,’ the lawmakers wrote at the time. ‘By permitting the district court to disrupt FDA’s current regulation of mifepristone, the Fifth Circuit has countenanced judicial interference that erroneously substitutes the district court’s judgment for FDA’s scientific determination.

Hirono, Schumer and Whitehouse have not been publicly critical of nationwide injunctions during the new Trump administration as district judges across the country manage to halt actions.

On Wednesday, the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on the subject as Republicans push legislation to end the practice of issuing nationwide orders. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Business

Elon Musk says backlash against his DOGE government cuts is hurting Tesla stock

Business 3 Mins Read

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Sunday that his involvement in the Trump administration could be hurting the automaker’s stock price.

Speaking at a town hall event in Wisconsin, Musk said his role with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency — which is pushing for widespread government job cuts — is creating backlash against his electric car company and hurting the stock.

“What they’re trying to do is put massive pressure on me, and Tesla I guess, to … stop doing this,” Musk said, according to Bloomberg News. “My Tesla stock and the stock of everyone who holds Tesla has gone, went roughly in half. I mean it’s a big deal.”

Elon Musk at a Cabinet meeting at the White House on March 24.Win McNamee / Getty Images

Shares of Tesla entered Monday already down more than 34% year to date, and the stock has been cut nearly in half from its peak in December. Shares were down an additional 6% in premarket trading Monday.

Tesla’s stock is trading at a little more than half of its highest level from December.

The drop for the stock could be a “buying opportunity” for the long term, said Musk, who was in Wisconsin ahead of a state supreme court election there. Musk has campaigned for the conservative candidate and spent more than $12 million on the race, in addition to giving $1 million each to two voters at Sunday’s rally for signing a petition against “activist judges.”

The slumping stock isn’t the only sign of public anger with Musk for his political work. Protesters demonstrated at Tesla dealerships over the weekend, and there have been reports of vandalism against vehicles and dealers across the country.

Musk’s role in politics is not limited to DOGE. He publicly campaigned with Trump in 2024 and has been a regular presence at the White House since the new administration took over in January. He also regularly comments on many different political topics on X, the social media company he owns.

The CEO’s rising political profile comes amid signs that Tesla’s core business is slowing. The automaker’s vehicle deliveries declined in 2024, and preliminary data has shown that sales are down again early this year, especially in Europe. In a note to clients Sunday, investment firm Stifel trimmed its price target on the stock and lowered its sales projections for Tesla.

Musk’s political dealings may not be the only reason for Tesla’s struggles. Other U.S. auto stocks have also labored in recent weeks, partly because of threats of higher tariffs on imported goods into the U.S. and retaliation from overseas trading partners, adding uncertainty to an industry whose supply chains are tightly woven among the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Business

Restaurant chain Hooters files for bankruptcy protection to enable founder-led buyout

Business 2 Mins Read

Restaurant chain Hooters of America filed for bankruptcy protection in Texas on Monday, seeking to address its $376 million debt by selling all of its company-owned restaurants to a franchise group backed by the company’s founders.

Hooters, like other casual dining restaurants, has struggled in recent years due to inflation, the high costs of labor and food and declining spending by cash-strapped American consumers. The company currently directly owns and operates 151 locations, with another 154 restaurants operated by franchisees, primarily in the United States.

The privately-owned company, which shares a private equity owner with recently-bankrupt TGI Fridays, intends to sell all corporate-owned locations to a buyer group comprised of two existing Hooters franchisees, who operate 30 high-performing Hooters locations in the U.S., mainly in Florida and Illinois.

Hooters did not disclose the purchase price of the transaction, which must be approved by a U.S. bankruptcy judge before it becomes final.

Founded in 1983, Hooters became famous for its chicken wings and its servers’ uniform of orange shorts and low-cut tank tops.

The buyer group is backed by some of Hooters’ original founders, and it pledged to take Hooters “back to its roots.”

“With over 30 years of hands-on experience across the Hooters ecosystem, we have a profound understanding of our customers and what it takes to not only meet, but consistently exceed their expectations,” said Neil Kiefer, a member of the buyer group and the current CEO of the original Hooters’ location in Clearwater, Florida.

Hooters said it expects to complete the deal and emerge from bankruptcy in three to four months. The company has lined up about $35 million in financing from its existing lender group to complete the bankruptcy transaction.

Casual dining restaurants have been hammered by rising costs in 2024, with well-known chains like TGI Fridays, Red Lobster, Bucca di Beppo, and Rubio’s Coastal Grill all filing for bankruptcy last year.

Restaurant prices have risen about 30% in the last 5 years, outpacing consumer prices overall, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Business

Meta’s head of AI research announces departure

Business 3 Mins Read

Meta’s head of artificial intelligence research announced Tuesday that she will be leaving the company. 

Joelle Pineau, the company’s vice president of AI research, announced her departure in a LinkedIn post, saying her last day at the social media company will be May 30. 

Her departure comes at a challenging time for Meta. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made AI a top priority, investing billions of dollars in an effort to become the market leader ahead of rivals like OpenAI and Google.

Zuckerberg has said that it is his goal for Meta to build an AI assistant with more than 1 billion users and artificial general intelligence, which is a term used to describe computers that can think and take actions comparable to humans.

“As the world undergoes significant change, as the race for AI accelerates, and as Meta prepares for its next chapter, it is time to create space for others to pursue the work,” Pineau wrote. “I will be cheering from the sidelines, knowing that you have all the ingredients needed to build the best AI systems in the world, and to responsibly bring them into the lives of billions of people.”

Pineau was one of Meta’s top AI researchers and led the company’s fundamental AI research unit, or FAIR, since 2023. There, she oversaw the company’s cutting-edge computer science-related studies, some of which are eventually incorporated into the company’s core apps. 

She joined the company in 2017 to lead Meta’s Montreal AI research lab. Pineau is also a computer science professor at McGill University, where she is a co-director of its reasoning and learning lab.

Some of the projects Pineau helped oversee include Meta’s open-source Llama family of AI models and other technologies like the PyTorch software for AI developers.

Pineau’s departure announcement comes a few weeks ahead of Meta’s LlamaCon AI conference on April 29. There, the company is expected to detail its latest version of Llama. Meta Chief Product Officer Chris Cox, to whom Pineau reported to, said in March that Llama 4 will help power AI agents, the latest craze in generative AI. The company is also expected to announce a standalone app for its Meta AI chatbot, CNBC reported in February. 

“We thank Joelle for her leadership of FAIR,” a Meta spokesperson said in a statement. “She’s been an important voice for Open Source and helped push breakthroughs to advance our products and the science behind them.” 

Pineau did not reveal her next role but said she “will be taking some time to observe and to reflect, before jumping into a new adventure.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Stock

The Best Five Sectors, #13

Stock 5 Mins Read

Financials take the lead.

No changes in the composition of the top 5 this week, and only one change of position within the top 5.

Financials (XLF) leapfrogged to the number one position, sending Communication Services (XLC) to the #3 position. Energy (XLE) remains #2 while Utilities (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) remain in positions #4 and #5.

Let’s examine the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs tell us about the current market dynamics.

Sector Lineup

  1. (3) Financials – (XLF)*
  2. (2) Energy – (XLE)
  3. (1) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  4. (4) Utilities – (XLU)
  5. (5) Healthcare – (XLV)
  6. (6) Industrials – (XLI)
  7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  8. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  9. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  10. (10) Materials – (XLB)
  11. (11) Technology – (XLK)

Weekly RRG: A Tale of Three Leaders

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph now shows three sectors firmly planted inside the leading quadrant.

XLF has rotated back into leadership after a brief sojourn, while Communication Services (XLC) maintains its strong position. Energy (XLE) is the latest entrant, crossing over into leading with a positive RRG heading—a trajectory that bodes well for continued outperformance.

Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV)—our fourth and fifth-ranked sectors—currently reside in the improving quadrant. However, their strong RRG headings suggest they’ll likely leap into leading territory in the coming weeks. It’s worth noting that Health Care is flexing its muscles with the highest RS momentum value among all 11 sectors.

On the flip side, we’re seeing only two sectors with negative RRG headings—the same culprits as last week. Technology (XLK) is pushing further into the lagging quadrant, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is rapidly approaching a crossover from weakening to lagging. This persistent weakness in these typically high-flying sectors is something to keep an eye on as it coincides with general market weakness.

Daily RRG: Short-Term Shifts

Zooming in on the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term rotations. Financials are holding steady in the leading quadrant with a neutral heading—there has been little movement over the past week.

Energy, which boasts the highest RS ratio, is losing some momentum. However, given its elevated RS ratio, this is likely just a temporary setback.

Utilities and Health Care are showing some interesting moves on the daily chart. XLU is currently in the weakening quadrant with a negative heading, but XLV is starting to curl back up—a positive sign that aligns with its weekly chart momentum.

XLC’s daily tail is painting an intriguing picture. It’s barely inside the lagging quadrant, but its positive heading pointing towards leading suggests it may soon start supporting the positive direction we see on the weekly chart.

In the bottom half of the rankings, we see some weekly weakness confirmations. Technology is rolling over in the improving quadrant, while sectors like industrials and materials are rotating from leading to weakening, all of which aligns with their lower positions in the portfolio ranking.

Financials (XLF)

XLF has bounced off support around 47, but the price chart still looks precarious.

The relative strength picture, however, is much more encouraging. We’re seeing a clear uptrend in the raw RS line, which is pulling both RRG lines higher. Keep an eye on that 47 level as key price support.

Energy (XLE)

Energy is currently trading in a range between roughly 84-85 and 98.

The real action is in the relative strength- we’re seeing a breakout from a falling channel, which is now pulling both RRG lines above 100.

This is what’s driving XLE’s move into the leading quadrant.

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is holding above support around 94, but only just.

A break below 93-94 could trigger more downside.

Relative strength still looks good, but the raw RS line is at the top of its rising trend channel. The high RS ratio reading gives some wiggle room, but it’s a situation to monitor closely.

Utilities (XLU)

Utilities remain stuck in a trading range, which is keeping its raw RS line range-bound as well.

It’s strong enough to keep the RRG lines rising, but we’ll need to see a relative strength breakout to push XLU into the leading quadrant.

Health Care (XLV)

Health Care is bumping up against resistance near 150 and remains range-bound.

A potential head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, but support is still a ways off around 135.

Relative strength is pushing against resistance, and with both RRG lines rising, XLV looks poised to cross into the leading quadrant soon.

Portfolio Performance Update

After last week’s hiccup, the RRG portfolio has not only erased its underperformance but actually flipped to outperformance.

As of last week, the portfolio stands at -4.86% YTD, compared to the S&P 500’s -4.96%. That’s a reversal from a 1.4% underperformance to a 10 basis point outperformance — not too shabby for a week’s work.

The market is sending plenty of mixed signals, but the sector rotation story is becoming clearer. Financials are stepping up, Energy is making moves, and the traditionally defensive sectors are showing strength. Meanwhile, Tech and Consumer Discretionary continue to lag—a trend that could have significant implications if it persists.

These rotations can shift quickly, so stay nimble and keep your eyes on the charts. The market never sleeps, and neither should your analysis.

#StayAlert –Julius

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Stock

Volatility Ahead: What Investors Need to Know Right Now

Stock 4 Mins Read

It was an ugly close to another roller-coaster trading week as the stock market struggled with several moving parts. Wednesday’s Evening Doji Star in the S&P 500 ($SPX) showed its power. The trading week didn’t end on a pretty note. 

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) all closed lower and are trading below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). And the selloff is across the board. It’s not concentrated in the heavily weighted stocks. 

The headwinds: Auto tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and hotter-than-expected PCE data. These have raised investor fear once again. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked higher on Friday, closing at 21.65.

From a sector perspective, Utilities was the only S&P sector that closed in the green on Friday, which reiterates defensive investor sentiment. This could continue for as long as investors worry about inflation and weakening U.S. economic growth. In addition to defensive sectors, other areas of the market show some bullish strength. 

What Are Investors Eyeing? 

Bond prices are rising. The daily chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is trading above its 50- and 100-day SMA. A break above the 200-day SMA would set a positive tone for bond prices although if past price action is of any value, TLT didn’t have much success the last couple of times it crossed above the 200-day. It could be different this time.

FIGURE 1. BOND PRICES SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE. Bond prices are now starting to rise. Will we see an RSI above 70 when TLT crosses above its 200-day simple moving average? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The relative strength index (RSI) in the lower panel is above 50. The last couple of times TLT crossed above its 200-day SMA, RSI failed to cross above 70, indicating a lack of momentum. However, if TLT crosses above its 200-day SMA and coincides with an RSI cross above 70, that could be an alert for a gain in momentum. 

Bonds were starting to trend higher after hitting their January lows but that uptrend consolidated from early March. There needs to be an upside follow-through for an uptrend to resume in bonds. There’s still time for it to play out but keep your eyes on this chart for the next few weeks.

Gold and silver prices have also been on a tear. Gold hit an all-time high on Friday while silver pulled back on Friday after Thursday’s price spike. Overall, the uptrend is still intact in both metals.

If you’re a regular reader of our ChartWatchers Newsletter, you’ll recognize the chart below which looks at the performance of various asset classes.  

FIGURE 2. PERFCHART OF DIFFERENT MARKETS. Gold and silver have outperformed most other asset groups. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Note how gold and silver prices are outperforming equities.  

Last but not least, let’s analyze the performance of the automobile sector, the most impacted industry group this week. Automobile stocks continue to slide. The daily chart of the Dow Jones US Automobiles Index ($DJUSAU) below displays a clear picture of the state of the industry. 

FIGURE 3. THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY. Things aren’t looking great for the automobile industry. After attempting to cross above the 200-day SMA, the Dow Jones Automobiles Index fell and is trending lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

After a healthy run in the second half of 2024, the industry has been in a steep decline, with any attempts of a rally being short-lived. On March 25, $DJUSAU crossed above its 200-day SMA but failed to hold above it. There’ll be more tariff news between now and April 2. So be prepared for more volatility in the automobile industry.  

The Bottom Line

Q1 has been pretty dismal, mainly due to tariff policies. There’s more to come. With “Liberation Day” approaching, expect more volatility in the stock market. There’s also the March jobs report on Friday. Equity futures are trading lower ahead of Monday’s open. 

We’ll end with a chart that every investor should be monitoring closely as we get through the next few months—a three-year weekly chart of the S&P 500. Feel free to save this to your ChartLists.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The index attempted to move beyond its July and August highs but didn’t succeed. With more tariff news on the horizon, will the S&P 500 succeed or will it move toward its March highs? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Stock

S&P 500 Drops Quickly to Test Key Support Amid Rising Volatility

Stock 14 Mins Read

Thank You!

I’ve been writing at StockCharts.com for nearly 20 years now and many of you have supported my company, EarningsBeats.com, and I certainly want to show my appreciation for all of your loyalty. I believe we’re at a major crossroads in the stock market as the S&P 500 tests the recent price low from earlier in March. I called for a 2025 correction at our MarketVision 2025 event on January 4, 2025, to start the year and now it’s a reality. We decided at that time to add quarterly updates to our MarketVision series and our first update (Q1 update) is being held today at 5:30pm ET. I would like to invite everyone to join EarningsBeats.com and join me later today. We will record the event for those who cannot attend live.

Even if you decide not to join as an EB.com member, I do want to provide you my latest Weekly Market Report that we send out to our members at the start of every week, in addition to our Daily Market Report, which is published Tuesdays through Fridays.

I hope you enjoy!

MarketVision 2025 Q1 Update

Join us for our MarketVision 2025 Q1 update at 5:30pm ET today. This is an exclusive event for our annual members. If you’re already an annual member, room instructions will be sent to you in a separate email.

Not yet an annual member? Save $200 on membership TODAY ONLY. This offer will expire at the start of today’s event, so CLICK HERE for more information and details!

If you recall, on Saturday, January 4, 2025, I provided my annual forecast, which included my belief that we’d see a 10% on the S&P 500. That 10% correction is now in the rear view mirror, but what will happen from here? A lot has changed and we must remain objective as to where we might go. I’ll provide you my latest thoughts on this during today’s event.

I hope to see you at 5:30pm ET!

ChartLists Updated

The following ChartLists were updated over the weekend:

  • Strong Earnings (SECL)
  • Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
  • Raised Guidance (RGCL)

These ChartLists are available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at “support@earningsbeats.com”.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The monthly PPO and monthly RSI are both moving lower now, but remember, we have not ever seen a secular bear market that did not coincide with a negative monthly PPO and a monthly RSI below 40. I believe we’ll see this market weakness end LONG BEFORE we see either of those technical developments on the above chart.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Relative weakness in the QQQ:SPY, including and excluding gaps, has turned back down in a big way. That’s not what you want to see from a bullish perspective. We must remain on guard for potential short-term downside action, especially if key closing price support at 5521 fails on the S&P 500.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps (IWM) seem to be performing better than the aggressive, Mag 7 led NASDAQ 100, but that’s not saying a lot when you look at the IWM’s absolute performance in the bottom panel. Perhaps we’ll still get the small-cap run that we’ve been looking for over the past year, but it’ll likely need to be accompanied by a much more dovish Fed and with the short-term fed funds rate falling.

XLY:XLP

I mentioned last week that this chart was the biggest positive of the prior week. I suppose I now need to say it’s the biggest negative of last week because it did an abrupt about-face. It appears that the options expiration and oversold bounce we enjoyed for over a week have ended. We haven’t broken back to new relative lows, which would obviously be bearish, but we did back a lot of ground that we had previously made up. The XLY:XLP ratio is one of the most important in the stock market, as far as I’m concerned. Watching it turn back down is not a great feeling, and a new upcoming relative low would only make it worse.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

When an elevated Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) sends a signal that we could see pain ahead, which is exactly the message sent recently as the VIX approached 30, I usually turn my attention to a rising 5-day SMA of the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) to help identify market bottoms. Once the stock market turns emotionally and begins to show fear and panic, key price support levels tend to fail, and a high reading in the VIX, combined with a huge reversal on the S&P 500 (think capitulation), usually are typical ingredients to establish a key bottom.

We’re finally starting to see some higher daily CPCE readings, which suggests that options traders are growing much more nervous, and that’s a good thing if we’re going to try to carve out a meaningful market bottom. The last four days have seen readings of 0.65, 0.71, 0.72, and 0.68. That’s not quite high enough to grow more convinced of an impending bottom in stocks, but it’s light years better than what we’ve seen during any other recent market selloffs.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

We’re coming off an extended run higher in the benchmark S&P 500, where we topped on February 19. The long-term picture with sentiment is much different than it was 1.5 to 2 years ago. Back then, everyone was bearish, leading to an important market bottom and a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. We could use more bearishness in options to set us up for another rally to all-time highs. Based on this chart, we’re not there yet.

Volatility ($VIX)

Here’s the current view of the VIX:

There was one key development in the VIX. From studying the VIX long-term, whenever a top has been reached, and significant selling ensues, the VIX typically spikes into the 20s or 30s before we see some sort of a rebound, like the one we saw recently. When these bounces have been part of bear market counter rallies, the VIX has never dropped below the 16-17 support range. So for those looking for this current correction to morph into a bear market, the hope is absolutely alive and kicking. My interpretation is that bear markets require a certain level of uncertainty and fear. The VIX remaining above that 16-17 level is our proof that the market environment for further selling still exists. In the above chart, the VIX fell to 17 and then quickly reversed and today hit a high of 24.80.

Based on this one signal alone, I cannot rule out further selling ahead and a possible cyclical bear market, as opposed to the much more palatable correction.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how I viewed their long-term technical conditions as of one week ago:

  • JPM – nice bounce off the recent 50-week SMA test
  • BA – up more than 20% in less than 2 weeks; 190-192 likely to prove a difficult level to pierce
  • FFIV – 20-week EMA test successful thus far
  • MA – another with a 20-week SMA test holding
  • GS – 10% bounce off its recent 50-week SMA test
  • FDX – lengthy four-month decline finally tested, and held, price support near 220
  • AAPL – weakness has not cleared best price support on the chart at 200 or just below
  • CHRW – testing significant 95 level, where both price and 50-day SMA support reside
  • JBHT – has fallen slightly beneath MAJOR support around 150
  • STX – 85 support continues to hold
  • HSY – did it just print a reverse right shoulder bottom on its weekly chart?
  • DIS – trendless as weekly moving averages are not providing support or resistance
  • MSCI – 3-year uptrend remains in play, though it’s been in a rough 6-7 week stretch
  • SBUX – first critical price test at all-time high near 116 failed miserably; support resides at 85
  • KRE – looking to establish short-term bottom at 55, with 2-year uptrend intact
  • ED – showing strength in March for 9th time in 10 years, moving to new all-time high
  • AJG – continues one of most consistent and dependable uptrends, trading just below all-time high
  • NSC – testing 230 price support as transportation woes continue
  • RHI – has broken recent price support in upper-50s; searching for new bottom with 4.4% dividend yield
  • ADM – struggled again at 20-week EMA, 45 represents a significant test of long-term uptrend
  • BG – approaching 4-year price support at 65 after failed test of declining 20-week EMA
  • CVS – bottom now seems light years away as CVS trades nearly 1-year high
  • IPG – how long can it hold onto multi-year price support at 26?
  • HRL – still bound between price support at 27.50 and 20-week EMA resistance at 30.15
  • DE – still trending above its rising 20-week EMA

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

  • Monday: None
  • Tuesday: None
  • Wednesday: None
  • Thursday: None
  • Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

  • Monday: March Chicago PMI
  • Tuesday: March PMI manufacturing, March ISM manufacturing, February construction spending, Feb JOLTS
  • Wednesday: March ADP employment report, February factory orders
  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March ISM services
  • Friday: March nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

  • Mar 31: -7.16%
  • Apr 1: +67.49%
  • Apr 2: +17.08%
  • Apr 3: -0.40%
  • Apr 4: -17.99%
  • Apr 5: +68.25%
  • Apr 6: +45.38%
  • Apr 7: -48.59%
  • Apr 8: +62.64%
  • Apr 9: +60.32%
  • Apr 10: +47.37%
  • Apr 11: -29.33%
  • Apr 12: +63.88%
  • Apr 13: -21.35%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

  • Mar 31: +39.81%
  • Apr 1: +83.56%
  • Apr 2: +18.47%
  • Apr 3: -86.48%
  • Apr 4: -70.46%
  • Apr 5: +112.55%
  • Apr 6: +26.71%
  • Apr 7: -38.23%
  • Apr 8: +44.64%
  • Apr 9: +60.64%
  • Apr 10: +47.74%
  • Apr 11: -51.08%
  • Apr 12: +33.04%
  • Apr 13: -0.08%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

  • Mar 31: +78.83%
  • Apr 1: +27.91%
  • Apr 2: +18.08%
  • Apr 3: -113.26%
  • Apr 4: -75.19%
  • Apr 5: +101.16
  • Apr 6: +51.29%
  • Apr 7: -90.50%
  • Apr 8: +59.63%
  • Apr 9: +137.22%
  • Apr 10: +5.20%
  • Apr 11: -80.66%
  • Apr 12: +45.00%
  • Apr 13: -37.09%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned last week, I’m sticking with my belief that the S&P 500 ultimate low in 2025 will mark a correction (less than 20% drop) rather than a bear market (more than 20% drop). But a bear market cannot be ruled out. Honestly, I think sentiment ($CPCE) must turn much more bearish. This morning, we had another gap down and early selling and this is beginning to take a toll on options traders as they’re now starting to grow more bearish. As an example, check out this morning’s equity-only put call ratio at Cboe.com:

These Cboe.com readings are very high and show a definite shift in sentiment among options traders. Intense selling pressure and lots of equity puts being traded, relative to equity calls, help to mark bottoms.

Here are a few things to consider in the week ahead:

  • The Rebound. It ended rather quickly last week. I mentioned it’s a rebound until it isn’t. We moved right up to 5782 price resistance on the S&P 500 and the bears took over.
  • The Roll Over. We’re now in rollover mode, but the S&P 500 quickly lost 300 points from 5782 to today’s early low of 5488, which tested key short-term price support from March 13, where we printed a low close of 5521. Can the bulls hold onto support?
  • Nonfarm payrolls. This report will be out on Friday morning and current expectations are for March jobs (131,000) to fall below the February number of 151,000. Also, unemployment is expected to move up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Should any of these numbers come in weaker than expected, the Fed could be in a box and Wall Street could sense it by selling off hard.
  • Sentiment. As I’ve said before, once the VIX moves beyond 20, not many good things happen to stocks. Selling can escalate very quickly as market makers go “on vacation.” Many times, we don’t find a bottom until retail options traders begin buying puts hand over fist. That could be underway right now.
  • Rotation. Rotation led us to where we are now, we need to continue to monitor where the money is going.
  • Seasonality. There is one real positive here. We’re about to move from the “2nd half of Q1”, which historically has produced annualized returns of +5.05% (4 percentage points BELOW the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%), to the “1st half of Q2”, which historically has produced annualized returns of 13.08% (4 percentage points ABOVE the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%). This half-quarter trails only the 1st and 2nd halves of Q4 in terms of half-quarter performance.
  • Manipulation. Yep, it’s starting again, just like it did during 2022’s cyclical bear market, which ultimately marked a critical S&P 500 bottom. We’ve done a ton of research on intraday trading behavior on our key indices, and many market-moving stocks like the Mag 7. Our Excel spreadsheet has been made available to all ANNUAL members, where you can see the manipulation for yourself.

Happy trading!

Tom

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You may not know it, but all of the Magnificent Seven stocks are in bear markets. Given they are such an integral part of the major indexes, we have to believe that the market will follow suit and continue lower in its own bear market. The SP500 is in correction territory already.

Given the decline in the market it was especially interesting to see what the condition of the market is right now. Carl gave us his overview of market conditions with a review of the DP Signal Tables and key market indicators.

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Erin finished up the program taking viewer symbol requests to look for long candidates and determine key support and resistance levels.

01:02 Market Overview

13:45 Magnificent Seven

20:28 Questions

31:00 Sector Rotation & Under the Hood Sector Charts

39:00 Symbol Requests

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